Thursday, July 30, 2020

How many deaths will COVID-19 leave in Mexico? The University of Washington estimates that more than 6,000

In its first projection to Latin America, the University of Washington Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment noted that Mexico City and Baja California are at risk of running out of intensive care beds. The Institute of Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME) of the University of Washington projected that by August 4, Mexico will have, on average, 6,859 deaths from COVID-19. In its first projection for Latin America, which was published on Tuesday, the Institute estimated that in Mexico, Peru and Ecuador, which are the Spanish-speaking countries of the region with the highest number of infections, the combined death toll will be 20,000. Brazil, on the other hand, will be the Latin American nation that has the highest number of deaths, with an estimated 88 thousand 305.

In the Mexican case, the IHME calculates the death toll until August 4, based on information from seven entities of the Republic, and covers a minimum range of 3,578 deaths to a maximum of 16,795, with 6,589 being the projected average number. That figure is similar to that estimated by the Mexican Government, which last week reported that the first wave of the pandemic is expected to leave a balance of between 5,000 and 6,000 deaths.

As of May 12, Mexico has 3,926 deaths and 38,332 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The Institute warned that, due to the pandemic, many Mexican states may suffer from a shortage of hospital resources. According to the latest available data, detailed the IHME, Baja California and Quintana Roo could experience a demand for hospital beds that exceeds current capacities. Likewise, regarding the Intensive Care Units, it is expected that, as of May 12, Mexico City will need 499 intensive care beds and only have 192 available; while Baja California has a need for 271 intensive care beds and only has 32 available.

“The new IHME forecasts for Latin America and a growing number of countries around the world demonstrate the wide range of responses policy makers and health officials have had to the pandemic,” said IHME Director Dr Christopher Murray. “Our objective is to inform their decisions and what has been their management and mobilization to address the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Source: El Financiero


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